I finished reading Ray Dalio’s new book, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail. The book is a reflection of his opinion about the changing power structure of nations.

Over the past 500 years, many powers had come and failed after some cyclic period. Dutch and British, all thought that their power will continue like they are at their peak. That didn’t happen. Every time a newly emerging country with more innovation and science takes over. The dominant country’s reserve currency status, no longer holds due to large debt after excessive spending on better quality of life, wars, etc.

Right now, according to the book, the US and China are in a very critial position. China is on the way to being the leading power with its huge military and technology. Even though China is a little behind in AI chips, space, and other areas of technology than the US. They seem to be moving at a very fast pace. With aggressive plans on 5G, AI, space, and biotechnology, it’s probably and matter of 5 to 10 years before they become the leader.

As an Indian, it makes me sad that we probably won’t be anything near China. After growing up listening to a lot of promises about the role of India in this century, I feel a little disappointed in myself. But, whatever the power structure in the next few years I have the confidence that India will be doing incremental improvement in information technology, robotics, semiconductor manufacturing, phones, and space frontiers. India will be on its path of progress.